Future Trends
Onstage at the 1999 Consumer Electronics Show, Cisco Systems CEO John Chambers told the audience that in the future, "Everything will be connected, and I mean literally everything . . . . Not just electronic devices, but everything down to your piano. We'll have as many as four or five Internet devices on our bodies." To prove his point, he demonstrated a Web-controlled fireplace, window blinds, and, as he promised, a piano -- all controlled by embedded systems.
Embedded systems are the applications that fuel some of the microprocessors that play a hidden but crucial role in our everyday lives. These are the tiny, quick, and smart microprocessors that live inside printers, answering machines, elevators, cars, cash machines, refrigerators, thermostats, wristwatches, and even toasters. Embedded systems are on the cutting edge of consumer electronics, poised to revolutionize various technologies by making them "smarter." A branch of the embedded-systems industry wants to see some of this newly smart equipment hooked up to the Internet, so that networking capabilities become a ubiquitous feature of modern machines.
Some experts estimate that embedded systems technology, which in 1998 is a $250 million industry, will be worth more than $2 billion within three years. Predictions are based on the commercial promise of smart devices. According to market researchers, consumers love electronic equipment that can do "smart" things like: transmit instructions to other devices wirelessly via infrared signals; be programmed to operate automatically; and connect to super-technologies, such as satellites, to bring remote power into their own hands.
An embedded system consists of two components: a compact, ultrareliable operating system that controls the microprocessor inside a device, and the suite of applications that runs on the operating system. Various corporations are racing to develop embedded systems for Internet-enabled devices, which include network computers (also called Internet appliances or thin clients), Internet phones, and traditional machines embedded with Internet connections -- such as printers, various medical devices, and thermostats.
The thermostat in a family home is an example of a theoretical Internet-enabled appliance of the future. The thermostat would be embedded with a smart microprocessor that supports an Internet server connection, a Web browser (and screen) for viewing Web information, software and graphics for programming and displays, and a protocol for communicating with the Internet. Users would be able to program the thermostat to gather information from the Web, such as local weather forecasts, to use in regulating the temperature of the house. In addition, users would be able to contact the thermostat remotely, via the Web, to instruct it to alter its settings.
Internet-enabled appliances might also become a staple of the future version of the home entertainment center, the "digital data center." A multimedia set of living-room devices might include, for example, a digital television that doubles as a personal computer, Web browser, and e-mail host; a stereo that can download tunes off of the Internet; and a video camera that can record the kids' pillow fight, send the video images directly onto the Web, and install them on the family's home page.
Cisco, Wind River Systems, Sun Microsystems, Integrated Systems, Microware Systems, and QNX Software Systems are among the prominent developers of embedded systems. In December 1998 Microsoft held a "soft" or low-publicity launch of AutoPC, a car stereo with a Windows-based operating system, featuring voice recognition, wireless messaging, and a global positioning system (GPS). The several-thousand-dollar price tag is sure to limit AutoPC's popularity for a time -- but that price is just as sure to drop in the coming years.
The world envisioned by embedded-systems engineers and executives is one in which the long fingers of the global Internet stretch and reach into every conceivable aspect of the modern person's life. With the fast pace of technological progress, that future may be right around the corner.
1-800-368-6868.
Website produced and maintained by tmg-e*media, inc.
|
A quadriplegic student uses an eye-scanner device to type out an invitation to a party. Over the Internet, her blind friend "reads" it with his ears. He forwards it to another friend, who is deaf; she in turn "types in" a phone call, asking what she can bring to the party. Today communications accessibility isn't just a nice idea, it's the law: specifically, Section 255 of the 1996 Telecommunications Act. At thirty-seven million strong, disabled people -- those functioning with impaired vision, hearing, mobility or cognition -- now comprise the largest minority group in the United States. Due to the fact that America's population is growing older (one in two people over age 65 is disabled) this number will certainly rise in the future. Nevertheless, technical "improvements" in telecommunications often forget the needs of disabled users. When phone companies updated telephone receiver designs in the 1980's, for example, they ignored a significant group of people who had retrofitted older receivers (which leaked magnetic signals) to work with hearing aids. This spurred a decade-long effort to achieve hearing aid compatibility in all telephones. As it was originally conceptualized, the Net was more accessible to the blind than the telephone was for the deaf. Although it wasn't originally planned, text messaging found its way to the design of the Internet. Why? Because a lead ARPAnet engineer used a "text telephone" system called TTY to communicate with his deaf wife, and he appreciated its value. Text interface can be read out loud for blind computer users through a machine called a text reader. Currently, however, the drive is on to make Web sites look more and more like television screens, full of big images, movie clips and audio files. Without corresponding key-based navigation for those who can't click a mouse, and text-based descriptions for those who can't see or hear, these "improvements" are a step backward for many. As one blind student puts it, "What's a window for you can be a locked door for me." To deal with the increasing exclusion of the blind from the Web, the World Wide Web Consortium (W3) takes pains to remind its members that universal design -- the practice of making telecommunications products for the broadest possible audience -- is no mere euphemism. Many inventions that began as tools for a small minority became so useful that they were adopted by the public at large. Vibrating pagers, elevator bells, and voice activation are a few examples of technologies used by populations far broader than their original target groups. As the Net becomes more of a full-body experience, its important to remember to design with multiple bodies in mind. At this writing, for example, scientists are experimenting with a virtual reality modeling language (VRML) called "haptic VRML," where space is "felt" with a joystick. Today, the technology is used by blind Netizens seeking a non-visual way to experience virtual space. But like the telephone (a byproduct of research into deafness) and the cassette tape (conceptualized as a "talking book" for the blind) experts predict that haptic VRML will soon be adapted by so-called "able" bodies, particularly industrial engineers in fields like mining, where low-vision conditions prevail. |